Hong Kong view

From an old and knowledgeable friend, discussing the current imbalances in the Chinese banks:

“How long can Beijing exploit its own balance sheet before it turns into another Greece? And how may we find out when it has reached that point?”


Like a lot of other endemic world problems — the crisis will probably be tripped by some extraneous and probably totally unexpected happening — maybe something leading up to the succession next year or an even bigger than usual natural/manmade catastrophe [e.g., a Three Gorges Dam break].

For example, the heart attack that Salam Fayyad, the technocratic and apparently honest Palestinian, who has been prime minister on the West Bank and working with the Israelis for economic progress, just had a heart attack while attending the graudation of his son from the University of Texas and is in a Dallas hospital. That may have more to do with the future history of the Mideast than all Obama and Netanyahu’s speeches put together. That is the way history is  writ.

 As we know, there are an awful lot of powerful and influential people — outside China as much as inside — willing to patch and cover up the cracks; everyone from commodity sellers/traders to the Taiwanese, Japanese, South Korean and American multinationals with their profitable product assembly lines.
But my hunch is that when it does finally crack, all hell will break lose when after one after another problem turns critical.

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