Obama’s Iranian deadend


The growing absurdity of Pres. Barack Obama’s arguments in favor of his negotiations with the Tehran mullahs grows ever more self evident.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, itself at best never much more than a token effort to enforce anti-proliferation agreements, has revealed that Iran’s nuclear fuel stockpile is growing. In fact, the AIEA says, it has grown 20% during the last eighteen months. During that period Washington has been insisting the preliminary November 2013 Joint Plan of Action Agreement between the Islamic Republic and the West, had put a cap on Iran’s nuclear activities, and perhaps had the makings of a final agreement to halt any Iranian move toward nuclear weapons.
But only a month before the proposed completion of that constantly postponed final agreement, the IAEA calculations completely give the lie to Obama’s continued insistence his negotiations at leasdt temporarily had reigned in Iran’s nuclear developments.
Furthermore, the proposed final deal is supposed to reduce the Iranian fuel stockpile to 300 kilograms of nuclear fuel, less than requirements for a single bomb. That means Tehran would have to get rid itself of nine tons of enriched uranium fuel. No one really knows how that would be done. [The mullahs long ago ignored their agreement when Moscow sold them a reactor with the proviso fuel byproducts from its generating capacity would be shipped back to the then Soviet Union.]
Having backed off the whole concept of restricting Iran’s capability to make nuclear weapons to a position where the mullahs would have the capacity to do so but would foreswear it, Obama’s critics now have a new concern. Obviously, the size of its nuclear fuel stockpile would be decisive in any calculation – now ridiculously the new major issue in the whole discussion – of how long it would take the mullahs to make bombs. That “breakout” calculation, foolishly enough, has become a central argument between Obama and his Congressional critics. Obviously, a political judgment, an estimate, of whether the mullahs would and could be trusted to abide by any such self-imposed schedule, is the more demanding and paramount issue.
The IAEA report matter of factly pointed out that no progress has been made in its efforts to implement UN Security Council resolutions calling for information from the mullahs on possible movement toward “weaponization” .Needless to say, the IAEA report also says Tehran has made no suggestions how it might move to conform to the UN demands.
The IAEA report sums up that given the missing intelligence, it is not able to make a judgment on whether Iran is moving toward producing weapons.
The combination of Washington having lifted some economic sanctions – apparently the only weapon in its effort to restrain the mullahs short of military intervention – and the White House bogus claims on progress in restraining Tehran, already has led to diplomatic disaster. Washington’s nominal allies in the Persian Gulf and a disgruntled Egypt and Turkey are increasingly showing every evidence of abandoning the U.S.’ traditional leadership and looking to their own security calculations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to scold, but he most of all, will have to decide what happens in the absence of what he has called “a good agreement”. Israel is after all a continued target for the mullahs’ threats to wipe it off the map.
Apparently the Obama Administration will continue to issue preposterous statements on progress of the negotiations – or ask for further extensions — as the region and the world slide toward crisis.
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